Feedback sought on review of security of supply standards

The Electricity Authority Te Mana Hiko (Authority) is reviewing New Zealand's security of supply standards to ensure they continue to reflect an efficient level of investment in electricity supply reliability.

The security of supply standards provide reference points to help assess how secure electricity supply is expected to be over the medium term.

The standards support investment and risk-management decisions by participants and underpin the System Operator's annual Security of Supply Assessment (SOSA).

The current standards were established by the Authority in 2012 and were last reviewed in 2018. That review identified opportunities to improve the methodology but concluded that the resulting standards were broadly similar to the existing standards and did not warrant amendment.

Since then, the electricity system has changed significantly. Wind and solar generation now dominate new generation investment, grid-scale batteries are a source of flexible capacity, thermal generation is increasingly operating as firming and reserve capacity and assumptions about fuel availability and costs have changed materially. In addition, demand forecasts have also become more uncertain as electrification and large new loads emerge.

These developments warrant revisiting both the level of the standards and the methodology used to derive them.

This review is primarily focused on ensuring that the standards remain fit for purpose as a security of supply monitoring tool in the face of a changing electricity system.

The review is not intended to materially alter the role of the security standards but will update the assumptions and methodologies underpinning them, so they better reflect the characteristics of today's electricity system.

We are proposing changes to how the security of supply standards are calculated, and changes to the Security Standards Assumptions Document (SSAD).

Full details of the proposed changes are set out in the Review of security of supply standards consultation paper.

We’re seeking feedback on the proposals by 17 November 2026.

The new standards are intended for the 2028 SOSA but two interim improvements to the SSAD have been identified - focused on demand forecasting and generation pipeline assumptions - that can be in place for the 2027 SOSA.

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